Spendthrift Shoestring

An Epic Fail in the Eurovision Prediction Stakes

In late February, freshly returned from a few nights in Oslo, I predicted that Stella Mwangi would win Eurovision.

Last night, in the first semi-final of the competition, she failed even to qualify for the final. In a field of 19 songs, "Haba haba" wasn't among the top ten. Meanwhile, the Swiss song, which I judged to be irredeemably terrible—and from a country with an abysmal recent Eurovision history, to boot—went through.

So yeah. Terrible prediction, apparently. Late Saturday the semi-final votes will be revealed and it will be interesting to see how close Mwangi came to qualifying.

Why Stella Mwangi will win Eurovision

 

I visited Oslo last week to research a story for Gadling. I had a great time despite the sticker shock that unavoidably accompanies any stay in Norway. I left Oslo full of thoughts about contemporary Norway, about the fortress-like feel of central Oslo, the cultural milieu of various immigrant neighborhoods, and the relative difficulty involved in tracking down local contemporary design.

I also left Norway completely convinced that Stella Mwangi will win Eurovision outright. Mwangi won the Norwegian national final on February 12 with a song called "Haba haba." The robust local reception of "Haba haba," its familiarity as a pop tune, the attractiveness of the live performance, Mwangi's charisma, and what has thus far been poor competition all work in her favor.

1. “Haba haba” is simple, apparently heartfelt, and very catchy. In Norway, the song is an enormous hit. I heard it on the radio on the order of once an hour. That sort of saturation suggests deep popular affection for the song. Another index of its local popularity: "Haba haba" managed to keep Lady Gaga's "Born this way" off the top spot on the Norwegian iTunes singles chart. I believe that Norway was the only country monitored by iTunes that denied Gaga the top iTunes singles position two weeks ago.

2. "Haba haba" calls to mind several different musical genres: disco; children's rhyme; Boney M (is this a genre?); even gospel. (For the uninitiated, Boney M were responsible for a gold mine of golden pop songs in the 1970s and 1980s. Many of these were reworked traditional songs.)

3. The dance is also very catchy. Lionel Richie once said that the sign of a good pop song was not the artist’s ability to sing it but rather its audience’s ability to sing along to it. This principle can be extended to a dance routine. If a dance routine makes ordinary people not particularly blessed with an ability to dance want to try their hand at the moves, that suggests potential for a massive hit. (That said, the choreography needs to be reworked a bit. The routine needs to be tighter and there are several moments where the backing singers appear to be scurrying all over the stage without direction.)

4. Mwangi possesses great charisma, both on stage and off, and is receiving heaps of media attention. Last Thursday, she was on the cover of the mass daily tabloid VG after the vice-mayor of a small town posted some rather unfunny jokes about Mwangi on Facebook. Mwangi was also on the cover of leading gossip magazine Se og Hør last week. Inside, a feature included many pages of photographs of Mwangi with her family and boyfriend. In short, she's a very appealing readymade media figure.

5. Her competition thus far isn't very good. As of Wednesday night, 18 (of 43) participating countries have released their selections for Eurovision to the public. Few of these songs possess any sort of spark that might in turn inspire excitement across national borders.

Norway, Eurovision, and the Power of the Jury

I didn't see it coming. I was taken aback by Norway's win at Eurovision on Saturday. In between the recently robust practices of diasporic and bloc voting at Eurovision, it seemed inconceivable to me that Norway's entry could win. Yet it did, and quite handily.

Across the board in this year's Eurovision results, it's clear that the re-introduction of juries into the voting calculus has forced a leveling off of the power of bloc and diaspora voting. Those trends are still present in the results, but they appear to have had vastly reduced significance this year. (I do realize that this conclusion may be complicated by the fact that only two countries from the former Yugoslavia made it through to the final while all five Nordic countries did so. It will take time to analyze more thoroughly.)

I watched the final at a spirited screening party at Hibernia Irish Bar and Grill in midtown Manhattan. A boisterous contigent of Norwegians arrived early and took up a great deal of space. Among their numbers, it so turns out, was Hanne Krogh, one half of Bobbysocks, the act that won Eurovision in 1985 for Norway. It was so cool in the nerdiest Eurovision fan way to stand a few feet from Krogh at the close of the transmission while she lipsynched to "La det swinge" in front of an ecstatic audience.

Thanks to Anthony Cowlam for organizing the delightful screening party at Hibernia.

Azerbaijan 12 Points

It's Eurovision time again. I've been completely remiss in my standard event build-up blogging activities. I realized months ago that I wouldn't make it to Moscow this year and consequently haven't been obsessively following every last detail. I am excited to see how the new voting system will change things, and I'm looking forward to screening the final tomorrow at Hibernia Irish Bar & Grill in Midtown.

I'm hoping that Azerbaijan will emerge victorious with AySel and Arash's "Always," as I'd love to travel to Baku next May. I've been following the perfect pop of Arash—the Azeri-Swedish fellow who is one half of the duo representing Azerbaijan this year—for a while, and I'd love to see what might happen if he were to build a following across Europe.

My other favorites in the bunch include the entries from Albania, Finland, Greece, Sweden, and Turkey. And as for the Norwegian song that leads the betting odds? Somehow I just can't imagine that it's going to win. I wouldn't mind being proven wrong, though I do worry how the Oslo cost index might trouble the budgets of journalists and fans.

Belgrade for Eurovision!

I'm taking a break from London posts—a tough decision, especially after my amazing discoveries on Tuesday afternoon—because I'm in Belgrade, writing about Eurovision for the New York Post. Check it out.

I'll return to observations on London and escapades there and elsewhere next week.

London, Soon

Preparing for a longish period away from home, as I pointed out on Monday, really does take an enormous amount of time and energy. I've been truly walloped by everything that's had to get done.

A few days after I arrive in London I'll depart for Belgrade, where I'll be attending this year's Eurovision Song Festival. Starting Wednesday, May 21, I'll be blogging about Eurovision for the New York Post's travel blog. Be sure to click over to read my reports.

More soon, I swear.

Eurovision 2008 Top Tunes

The first Eurovision semi-final is just over five weeks away. I've heard all the songs many times now, and it's time to look at my top ten favorites and make a prediction or two. Note that the below songs are merely my favorites, and not the songs I'd necessarily predict to finish in the top ten.

1. Vrag naj vzame — Rebeka Dremelj (Slovenia)
My early favorite was the Slovenian entry "Vrag naj vzame" by Rebeka Dremelj, and it remains in my personal top slot. There's nothing earth shattering about it; the song just has the perfect build-up to the chorus and the nicest bridge. According to esctoday.com, Dremelj is working with Sasa Mirkovic, who managed last year's Eurovision winner Marija Serifovic. I'm hoping that Mirkovic's golden touch will rub off on Dremelj. (Apologies for the absent diacriticals above.)

2. Divine — Sébastien Tellier (France)
Probably the best song in the competition, and my second favorite, is Sébastien Tellier's "Divine," for France. How France 3 got an electropop hipster to represent the country is anyone's guess, but I'm so glad they did. This is a fantastic song, and a perfect expression of a genre that French artists do extremely well. Could France win? It would shock my pants off, but it would be a happy vindication of the idea that when country delegations go with a local pop music tradition, as Finland did in 2006 with Lordi, they shine.

3. Qele qele — Sirusho (Armenia)
"Qele qele" is standard Eurovision fodder with just the right vaguely Oriental arrangements. Yes, that's a plaintive flute. "Qele qele," which is sung mostly in English, is a sweet pop song. The formula works and the vocal is good and I can already imagine hearing it on the radio.

4. DJ, Take Me Away — Deep Zone & Balthazar (Bulgaria)
I don't know if it's the sheer blend of genres here that does it for me, but I like this one a lot. The beginning sounds like a rip-off of something DJ Jean might have done nearly a decade ago. It's followed by some plodding reggae-ish beats and then proceeds to merge the two styles. There are no vocals until about a minute in, which is a risk.

5. Hold On, Be Strong — Maria Haukaas Storeng (Norway)
The Norwegian preselection delivers a song that sounds as if it was ripped off Ace of Base's second album. So, in other words, it's perfect for Eurovision, a contest that turns on dated pop conventions.

6. Candlelight — Csézy (Hungary)
I've only heard the Hungarian version of this entry. It's a nice disco-y, romantic bit of schlager formula. I'm very happy with it and have already slapped it on my spring playlist for friends. Note: link is to a different version of the song.

7. Hasta la Vista — Ruslan Alehno (Belarus)
The version that will be performed in Belgrade is a pop-rock song, well produced and dramatic. I tend to either love or hate Eurovision entries from Belarus. This one works. 

8. Disappear — No Angels (Germany)
No Angels, who won the German Popstars back in 2000, have possibly the most glossily-produced entry in the entire competition. This song makes me think of vintage Wilson Phillips a little bit. 

9. Casanova — Gisela (Andorra)
This is just a fine Eurovision standard. It pulls all the right strings. Who can resist the lyric "Boom boom boom my heart still goes crazy / when I think of you"? The single Catalan line is my favorite part.

10. Hero — Charlotte Perrelli (Sweden)
Oh, what could have been! The Swedish public again made the terrible decision not to send BWO to Eurovision. BWO, in my mind, have just the right balance between sterling pop sensibility and quirky inexplicability to reign supreme at Eurovision. Instead, we get this otherwise perfect gay anthem sort of entry by Charlotte Perrelli, who won Eurovision in 1999 as Charlotte Nilsson.

Some other songs I like: "Have Some Fun" by Teresa Kerndlová (Czech Republic); "Complice" by Miodio (San Marino); "This is My Life" by Eurobandi∂ (Iceland); "Secret Combination" by Kalomoira (Greece); and "Ke'ilo Kan" by Boaz Mauda (Israel).

So who will win? I think it might just be Russia's year. They're returning with Dima Bilan, who took second place for Russia in 2006. This year, Bilan returns with "Believing," a Timbaland-produced tune. It's an ok song—very anonymous to my ear—and it will surely receive top scores from a record number of post-Soviet states, plus it will receive an inevitable gratitude vote from Serbia and possibly some other countries in the Balkans. Paddy Power has Russia as the current favorite, though, which is not a good omen. Which other entries stand a good chance? Serbia could very easily benefit from an outpouring of support and take the top prize. I'm also going to be watching Armenia and the joke entries from Ireland and Spain.

In getting ready for Belgrade, I'm reading B92 and Blic online.

Eurovision 2008: Slovenia!

As far as this year's Eurovision songs go, it's still early days. About three-quarters of this year's 43 songs have been selected, and I've only heard about half of these.

My early favorite is "Vrag naj vzame" by Slovenia's Rebeka Dremelj. Slovenia doesn't have a great track record at Eurovision, but I'm hopeful that they'll do well this year. (For that matter, I have a poor track record at Eurovision. My faves have tended to crash and burn in recent years.) It would be exciting to see an ex-Yugoslav country take the reins from Serbia. And gosh I'd love to have another excuse to run around Ljubljana for a few days.

And the song? It's a tried-and-true exercise that starts out midtempo and then gets disco-y. It's well-done pop well-suited for Eurovision season. Check it out. I will admit that I'm hoping they work on the choreography before May.

Check out ESC Today and Schlagerblog for news and impassioned snark, respectively, on all matters Eurovision.