Five European Low-Cost Air Predictions for 2008

Facts and route information about Europe's biggest low-cost carriers are easy to master; the business of Europe's budget airlines remains more opaque and difficult to predict—for me at least. So take the following with a grain of salt. If nothing else, these predictions will be interesting to return to in 12 months.

1. EasyJet will continue to thrive. The airline is moving from strength to strength, and is even employing the competitive, bravado-based strategy more commonly displayed by their arch rival Ryanair. EasyJet's purchase of GB Airlines earlier this year means that the airline will be operating just under a quarter of all routes in and out of Gatwick by the spring.

2. There will be one big consolidation. Will it involve Vueling, which suffered resignations and a lowered Goldman Sachs rating in the fall? Will it be SkyEurope that falls? The Slovak airline is selling planes but increasing revenue. Or will it be another airline altogether?

3. Eastern European routes will continue to boom. Ryanair's recent addition of Constanta is the latest sign. EasyJet flies routes to Bucharest, Sofia, and Istanbul, and SkyEurope flies to Timisoara, Bucharest, Sofia, Varna, and Bourgas. Romania and Bulgaria will see more budget air traffic, in particular to destinations in Italy and Spain. Moldova and Ukraine have barely been tapped—among budget airlines, only On Air flies to Ukraine, and only Meridiana schedules flights to Moldova. Both countries will see more budget air routes relatively soon, though possibly not within the next year.

4. There will be more destinations beyond Europe served by European LCCs. Ryanair will probably begin to fly to Tel Aviv.

5. Flyforbeans will finally launch, with the quirkiest route map around. (Ok, this last one is complete guesswork.)